SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) – Russia will respond immediately and symmetrically if the United States quits the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.
Moscow is ready to develop new weapons systems, both nuclear and non-nuclear, in response to other countries doing the same, Putin said at a forum with scholars.
From Reuter:
reporting by Polina Nikolskaya; Writing by Denis Pinchuk; Editing by Christian Lowe
For much of the past year, I’ve lived a double life. I’ve embedded within Iraq’s Special Operations forces throughout the battle of Mosul, witnessing first-hand a truly remarkable struggle against the Islamic State. But I’ve also continued my four-year field research into the Islamic State, interviewing the group’s fighters and supporters to understand the conflict through their eyes.
This double life has led me to a singular perspective: As encouraging as it has been for coalition forces to make so much headway, winning conflicts and taking back land won’t stop the Islamic State for long. Only widespread change in governmental policies can do that. Local policies dealing with Islamic State militants, ex-fighters and potential recruits lag behind the curve not only in Iraq, but also in almost every country from Southeast Asia to Western Europe.
In countries such as Libya, Yemen, the Philippines, Nigeria and Somalia, governments have little physical control over parts of their territories, which makes them easy territorial targets for the Islamic State. But countries with too much control — the Caucasus, Central Asian republics and some African nations — also contribute to the crisis by making life so unbearable for citizens that they leave to find a better life in the group’s caliphate.
It should come as no surprise then that one of the biggest groups of Islamic State foreign fighters (and their families) are Uzbeks. Uzbekistan has a freedom-ranking similar to North Korea and, according to human rights organizations, “wide-scale violation of virtually all basic human rights.”
In the places where governments cannot fulfill their duties to provide for and protect civilians, not only can a relatively well armed group easily take control, the local population, tired of bad government, will not resist a takeover. Often, people even welcome it. In a 2016 survey of post-Islamic State territory in Iraq that I conducted, 30 percent of civilian respondents said security and policing actually improved under the Islamic State, compared with only 5 percent who said that it had become worse. The extremist group was not only strong enough to take the territory, it was also capable of governing it — and in some places, still is.
While recent military successes have given governments a chance to address issues such as rampant corruption, there are few signs of improvement. There was so much corruption among Iraq’s security forces that al-Qaeda used it to its advantage. If it wanted to target a civilian for recruitment, it would report that person to Iraq’s internal security as an al-Qaeda member. The civilian would then be arrested, thrown in prison, beaten and tortured. He would likely only be released after his family paid money through extortion. After such an experience, civilians are often more than ready to volunteer for any anti-government movement.
Overly controlling countries have also not changed — and in some cases have even gotten worse. Many governments have further cracked down on religion and personal freedoms in response to the Islamic State. By doing so, they have not only increased grievances among those most likely to fight but also pushed those people underground.
Although successful military operations have pushed back the Islamic State’s territorial conquest and won time for government reform, that time window is short. The Islamic State is exploring areas with weak security all over the world (even as far away as the Philippines) and is even trying to regain territory in recently-liberated areas of Iraq. Members are either waging insurgency war in remote rural areas or hiding in towns to prepare for future attacks.
The Islamic State isn’t currently gaining new ground, but the potential for gaining new fighters waits in the wings. Enter the next generation of extremists: local Sunni civilians who lost everything in the war and are already afraid for their safety, and a new enlistment of young, smart sympathizers who can use their expertise in engineering, science and the military to serve the goals of an armed group.
The next Islamic State, commanded by experienced fighters thirsty for revenge, would be more deadly and more widespread. The anti-Islamic State coalition in Iraq and Syria is dominating the region through air power, but extremists have already begun developing their own drones. Today, these drones are made of recycled plastic and duct tape; next time, they could well be more dangerous.
Looking at ongoing operations, both a former Islamic State foreign fighter and I have reason to be optimistic. I am optimistic that the Iraqi government will regain control of the territory. And he is optimistic that his former brothers-in-arms will finally go to heaven — and that new fighters will come to take their place.
By Vera Mironova
GENEVA (Reuters) – A member of the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Syria said on Sunday she was quitting because a lack of political backing from the U.N. Security Council had made the job impossible, Swiss national news agency SDA reported.
Carla del Ponte, 70, who prosecuted war crimes in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia, told a panel discussion on the sidelines of the Locarno Film Festival that she had already prepared her letter of resignation.
The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously Saturday to impose new sanctions on North Korea over the country’s long-range missile tests last month.
The measure cuts about $1 billion worth of North Korean exports, or about a third of the country’s export revenue each year.
“This resolution is the single largest economic sanctions package ever leveled against the North Korean regime,” said Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. “This is the most stringent set of sanctions on any country in a generation.
“And this time, the council has matched its words and actions,” she said.
Arriving at new sanctions
The sanctions ban countries from buying North Korean coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood. Other countries will also be barred from increasing the “total number of work authorizations,” and banned from creating “new joint ventures” with North Korean businesses or people.
“The United States was able to get a pretty strong resolution here that will hit North Korea where it hurts economically,” says Ankit Panda, who writes about North Korea for the online magazine, The Diplomat.
North Korea tested two intercontinental ballistic missiles in July. The second, experts said, showed the potential to reach the U.S. mainland.
All 15 Security Council members approved the resolution, including Russia and China. China is North Korea’s largest trading partner and makes up 85 percent or more of North Korea’s total trade.
China’s representative to the U.N., Liu Jieyi, said North Korea needed to “cease taking actions that might further escalate tensions,” Reuters reported. But Liu also criticized the U.S. role on the Korean peninsula, saying the deployment of a U.S. antimissile system, called THAAD, in South Korea, “will not bring a solution to the issue of [North Korea’s] nuclear testing and missile launches.”
China fears a spread of U.S. influence in the region, though China and the U.S. agree on wanting to stop North Korea’s nuclear development.
A country with experience “absorbing pain
North Korea has already faced a decade’s worth of ever-increasing sanctions backed by the U.S. and its allies. Not only have there been loopholes in the past that traders and businesses have exploited, but implementation and enforcement of sanctions have been spotty. Despite that, the U.S. and two previous South Korean governments “essentially bought into a sanctions approach to try and stop North Korea,” says John Delury, a North Korea watcher who teaches international relations at Seoul’s Yonsei University.
“It hasn’t worked. So we’re doing more of the same,” he says. “One thing North Korea is extremely good at is absorbing pain. And the last thing they’re going to yield on is their deterrence capability. Because they feel under threat and under siege.”
The roles of the U.S. and China
President Trump has used different strategies, from charm to Twitter criticism, to urge China to put more pressure on North Korea over its nuclear program.
“The President appreciates China’s and Russia’s cooperation in securing passage of this resolution,” the White House said in a statement after the measure passed. “He will continue working with allies and partners to increase diplomatic and economic pressure on North Korea to end its threatening and destabilizing behavior.”
But, as Amy King of the Australian National University told NPR’s Elise Hu and Anthony Kuhn, the focus on China “abrogates [other countries’] own responsibility, particularly in the case of the U.S.” The U.S. could do more on its own to develop a relationship with North Korea, she said.
Speaking at a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Manila, Philippines, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the vote “a good outcome,” according to The Associated Press. South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha called it “a very, very good outcome.”
Representatives from Southeast Asian countries plan to discuss at the summit what other action to take in response to North Korea’s recent missile tests.
From NPR JAMES DOUBEK, ELISE HU
